The future of Nepal is in crisis. There are only 18 years left for the severe labor force shortages. The question is will there be sovereign Nepal after 3 decades?
I urge all the policy and decision-makers, and scholars of Nepal to think about it seriously. It is urgent, if not there won’t be a labor force in Nepal after 3 decades It is 100% sure that there will be severe shortages of it even counting new generation labor forces.
It may happen even within 2 decades if the rate of migrations/exports of labor force trend will go up. These predictions are based on just one angle of the labor force not counting other issues like environmental, industrial, agriculture plus many other and political issues.
If we don't create jobs industries and agro-based industries etc right now to stop the migrations of our labor forces to foreign countries then Nepal will be doomed.
Sad this single equation is not taken care of by the government of Nepal at all? So-called foreign remittance is useless when we talk about the development of industrial as well as agricultural and other infrastructures. We must focus on building a country not sending our labor forces to other countries. Living standards of people must raised to stop the export of labour force. It’s a simple equation every layperson knows.
What is wrong with the government? Why country's policies not focusing on this crucial question? These will be questions to every single leader as well as people.
See simple math below, which supports the above statement:
1. 14% of the population of Nepal left the country to work in foreign countries. it's about 4 million. The total remaining labor force today is approximately 8.9 million.
2. Prediction of labor forces after 18 years per current labor force situation:
Each year approximately 0.7 million core labour forces leave the country which includes more than 100,000 students per year.
If this rate continues after 18 years that number will be approximately 8.9 million will leave the country totaling the labor force in Nepal =1.8 million, which will eventually be zero and will be a disaster it is already a big crisis.
Here is the quick equation on new generation labor forces :
what will happen after 18 years even counting new rising labour forces?
Each year approximately labor forces of 500,000 young people will enter Nepal, however 80% of them will leave the country that means within 18 years total remaining labor force will be only 100,000 *18 = 1.8 million
3. There may be questions about new generations but migration/export of labor forces will be a lot faster than upcoming new generations. It will be hard to fill the gap as stated above.
To increase the labor force within the country need to stop exporting labor forces abroad.
what next, who will build the country?
Conclusions:
Politicians, planners plus other scholars must act on the above issues immediately! If it continues in Nepal as shown in the above calculations soon Nepal will have negative labor forces.
That means the country needs to bring new expensive labor forces from somewhere on top of the high inflations. That not only collapses the economy but the entire infrastructure of the country and the country will be doomed!
Do not wait till the last minute act right now stop sending people out to build the country and start the reverse brain drain.
Both India & China already started the reverse brain drain why not Nepal?
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