Last year, I visited Phalelung Rural Municipality in Panchthar district to provide an orientation on Anticipatory Action (AA) to local community influencers. Leaders from various faiths-priests, monks, pastors, and gurus-were selected as influencers so that they could more effectively mobilize people during disaster management efforts.

The participants were introduced to the foundational principles of Anticipatory Action by linking the concepts to swift and strategic practices that empower communities to cope with hazards. By equipping these trusted voices with timely information and practical frameworks, the Nepal Red Cross aimed to enhance community preparedness and reduce potential losses through early action, underscoring the vital role informed local leadership plays in disaster risk reduction.

As the participants ranged from Hindu priests who practiced astrology to Buddhist monks familiar with traditional forms of prediction, discussions also touched on astrological forecasts, such as the likelihood of heavy rainfall, subsequent flooding, and the need for preparedness measures. These conversations reflected on practical steps communities could take in advance to avoid potential losses.

One key action emphasized by the participants was the widespread dissemination of warning messages to ensure that everyone in the community, especially vulnerable groups, receives timely information. They also discussed the importance of securing valuable belongings, preparing evacuation plans, identifying safe shelters, and alerting local authorities. This became an entry point for introducing the core concept of anticipatory action-acting before a disaster strikes, based on reliable forecasts.

Connecting these ideas, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) was referred to as a “scientific astrologer” because it issues data-driven forecasts that help communities prepare and take early action before hazards escalate into disasters.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) recently issued its seasonal monsoon outlook, stating that this year’s monsoon is expected to begin on June 13 and remain active until October 2. The outlook further suggests a hotter and relatively drier monsoon than normal, although weather patterns may vary across regions.

Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-average rainfall, while both daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to remain above normal, increasing the risk of heatwaves and water stress. At the same time, the monsoon may still bring occasional intense rainfall, posing additional risks of floods and landslides. Overall, Nepal is likely to face a combination of heat stress, reduced precipitation, and uneven weather patterns during this monsoon season.

Need for Smarter, Targeted Preparedness

Experience has shown that even during weaker monsoon years, localized extreme rainfall events can still trigger floods and landslides, often causing significant impacts on vulnerable communities. Therefore, reduced overall precipitation does not necessarily mean reduced risk; rather, it calls for smarter and more targeted preparedness strategies.

In this context, the concept of Anticipatory Action becomes especially relevant. Anticipatory Action focuses on taking early, pre-planned measures based on forecasts and early warning signals before a disaster fully unfolds, thereby reducing loss and damage. With Nepal’s growing exposure to climate variability, shifting from reactive response to forecast-based early action has become imperative. The availability of early warning information from the DHM and advisories from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) provides a strong foundation for such proactive measures.

NAAF Creating an Enabling Environment

Importantly, the recent approval of the National Anticipatory Action Framework (NAAF) has created an enabling environment for scaling up these efforts. Compared to previous years, investing in Anticipatory Action is now more convenient, structured, and institutionally supported, as it allows both national and sub-national actors to act with greater clarity and coordination.

The framework guides linking forecasts to predefined actions, financing mechanisms, and the roles of different stakeholders so that preparedness becomes more systematic rather than ad hoc.

At the local level, this framework also opens significant opportunities for municipalities. Local governments can now develop hazard-specific Anticipatory Action protocols tailored to their unique risk profiles, such as floods and heatwaves in the Tarai region or landslides in hilly districts. These protocols can define clear triggers-such as rainfall thresholds, river water levels, or temperature extremes-and corresponding early actions, including evacuation planning, pre-positioning of relief materials, dissemination of risk communication messages, and protection of critical infrastructure and livelihoods.

By responding to these triggers on time, municipalities can significantly reduce disaster impacts before they escalate into emergencies.

Ultimately, even in a year when large-scale monsoon disasters may appear less likely, the focus must remain on readiness, early action, and resilience-building. Leveraging early warning systems and operationalizing the National Anticipatory Action Framework will help Nepal move toward a more forward-looking disaster risk management approach-one in which preparedness is not only maintained but also made more effective, coordinated, and responsive.

(Adhikari is an Anticipatory Action Coordinator at the Nepal Red Cross Society.)